ASSESSMENTS OF RISK AND BEHAVIORAL EXPERIENCE: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY OF CHANGE

This study examines the relationship between assessments of the risk of punishment and self-reported involvement in three illegal behaviors in a sample of college-aged respondents. It is found that those respondents who had not yet committed a particular offense were more likely to perceive a greater certainty of punishment than those with experience in committing the offense. For two of three offenses the effect of becoming involved in offending had a more substantial impact on the perceptions of those respondents with both experience in offending and high perceived certainty of punishment than on those who had experience and less pessimistic estimates of risk Finally, a multivariate analysis of the relationship between behavioral and perceptual change reveals that each variable affects the other even when other sources of change are controlled. The importance of the findings for the deterrence doctrine are discussed.