Simulated foreign policy exchanges: The rationale underlying a theory of foreign policy interaction

This article is the first of a two‐part series on the development of a theoretical perspective for explaining foreign policy exchanges between nations. The first paper discusses the substantive thrust of the research, and presents an overview of the Monte Carlo computer simulation which lies at its core. The theory largely built on the body of research on events data analysis, attempts to assimilate the set of findings arising from this research into a single integrated theory. Basic assumptions of the theory derived from cybernetics and information theory are outlined, and the simulation rules used in the research are presented. These provide the basis for a later paper (to appear in Vol. 2, No. 2, 1975) that presents a formal mathematical theory which seeks to explain foreign policy exchanges.