A Time-Series Analysis of Terrorism: Intervention,Displacement, and Diffusion of Benefits |
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Authors: | Henda Y Hsu David McDowall |
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Abstract: | This paper discusses the perception that displacement in terrorism is inevitable; that antiterrorism efforts merely relocate terrorism in some way. Using quarterly time-series data from the Global Terrorism Database (1994–2013) and the vector autoregression framework, we test the following hypothesis: the target-hardening efforts within the United States (US) after September, 11, 2001 reduce attacks on domestic US targets, but increase attacks on US targets abroad. To provide a more comprehensive test, we also provide dynamic impact factors and variance decompositions. The results of this intervention analysis show no support for displacement, and instead provide support for a diffusion-of benefits hypothesis. We also discuss how criminological and especially crime-prevention knowledge can guide and encompass the study of terrorism. |
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Keywords: | terrorism situational crime prevention crime displacement diffusion of benefits vector autoregression |
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