Selectively Incapacitating Frequent Offenders: Costs and Benefits of Various Penal Scenarios |
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Authors: | Arjan A J Blokland Paul Nieuwbeerta |
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Institution: | (1) Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR), P.O. Box 792, Leiden, 2300 AT, The Netherlands;(2) Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands |
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Abstract: | A small number of offenders are responsible for a disproportionate share of total crime. Policy makers have been seeking to
reduce crime more efficiently by targeting corrections at these frequent offenders. Thus far, both macro- and micro-level
research have yielded mixed results regarding the effects of these kinds of selective policies. The current study uses data
from the Netherlands Criminal Career and Life-course Study to estimate the incapacitative effects of alternative selective
prison policies. Using the rolling cohorts method, implementations of various penal scenarios differing in selection rate,
sentence disparity and selective accuracy are simulated. Results show that it is hard for selective policies to yield a positive
societal result: costs of imprisonment typically exceed benefits gained from crimes prevented.
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Keywords: | Selective incapacitation Frequent offenders Rolling-cohorts Cost-benefit analysis |
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