海峡两岸双边贸易流量与潜力研究——基于贸易引力模型的实证分析

以贸易引力模型的相关理论和方法为基础,实证检验并测算了大陆各省市(自治区)与台湾双边贸易的流量与潜力,结果表明:大陆各省市(自治区)的GDP、人均GDP和吸引台资额,各省市(自治区)与台湾之间的绝对距离,以及"两岸贸易热络区"等解释变量,是影响两岸双边贸易流量的主要因素,但影响程度各有不同。由于双边贸易的紧密程度(贸易依存度)不同,大陆各省市(自治区)与台湾的贸易潜力也不一样,对台出口和自台进口的发展空间也存在差别。因此,海峡两岸应采取针对性的措施,进一步加强经贸交流与合作,充分发挥各自的比较优势和竞争优势,消除双边投资和贸易的制约因素,实现两岸经济的共同繁荣。

Research on the Cross-strait Bilateral Trade Flows and Potential——Based on the Empirical Analysis of Trade Gravity Model

On the basis of relevant theories and methods of trade gravity model, this paper tests and measures the bilateral trade flows and potential between every province, autonomous region or municipality directly under the Central Government in China mainland and Taiwan. The result indicates that GDP, per capita GDP and Taiwanese investment of every province, autonomous region or municipality directly under the Central Government in China mainland, the absolute distance and the "active regions in cross-strait trade", are the main factors that influence the cross-strait bilateral trade flows and the influence extent of every factor is different. As the closeness extent of bilateral trade (trade dependence) is different, the trade potential between every province, autonomous region or municipality directly under the Central Government in China mainland and Taiwan is not same, and the development space of bilateral trade has difference. So, China mainland and Taiwan should take pertinent measures to strengthen the communication and cooperation in economic and trade areas, bring respective comparative advantage and competitive advantage into full play and remove obstacles in bilateral investment and trade, in order to realize common prosperity of cross-strait economy.