Partisan consequences of low turnout at elections to the European Parliament |
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| Institution: | 1. University of Stuttgart, Germany;2. University of Strathclyde, UK;1. Merton College, University of Oxford, OX1 4JD Oxford, UK;2. Université de Montréal, Département de science politique, Canada;3. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain;1. University of the Aegean, Department of Sociology, University Hill, EL-81100 Mytilene, Greece;2. Council of Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA), Via della Navicella 2–4, I-00184 Rome, Italy;3. Via A. Di Tullio 40, 00136 Rome, Italy;4. Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences, Department of Public Administration, 196 Syggrou Avenue, EL-17671 Athens, Greece |
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| Abstract: | Low turnout and potential differences in party preferences between voters and non-voters may affect party vote shares at European Parliament (EP) elections. Of particular concern is the rise of Eurosceptic and populist parties, but scholars do not know whether these would benefit from increased voter mobilization. To address this gap, we simulate the party choices of non-voters at the 2009 and 2014 EP elections. Contrary to analyses of turnout effects at general elections in multiparty systems, our simulations suggest that left-leaning and ideologically moderate parties would gain if turnout went up to levels observed at first-order national elections. And while there is some evidence that populist parties might have benefitted from higher turnout at the 2014 elections (but not in 2009), our findings do not support expectations that either Eurosceptic or Europhile parties’ vote share would be affected by higher turnout. |
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| Keywords: | European parliament Turnout Turnout effects Second-order elections Left parties Eurosceptic parties Extremist parties Populist parties |
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