应对不确定性：日本城乡变动中职业转换政策的启示

日本战后因产业结构的调整，大批农村剩余劳动力进城务工却不得不面临着人身事故高发的风险。此后，随着大城市过密化与乡村过疏化的加剧，于20世纪90年代开始逐步推动城乡间的对流以挽救颓废的乡村社会。日本在这前后两轮的城乡变动中，通过安全教育与技能训练等一系列的政策来支持农民应对职业转换的不确定性，于2000年后针对扎根到乡村的新农人的职业生涯更是进行了全方位的帮扶。半个多世纪的对策史，其核心理念逐渐凝结为运用政策的确定性来抵消城乡变动这一巨大的不确定性。对中国而言，这一政策路径可应用于官民共建的机制以应对职业转换的不确定性，以及在乡村振兴事业上也可参照日本“地域振兴协力队”制度对从城市移居到乡村的新农人的脱嵌与再嵌入进行的帮扶措施。

Against uncertainty: the Enlightenment of Career Transformation Policyin the Change of Urban and Rural Areas of Japan

After the war, due to the adjustment of industrial structure, a large number of rural surplus labor force had to face the risk of high accidents in cities. Since then, due to the intensification of overcrowding in big cities and depopulation in rural areas, it began to gradually promote the convection between urban and rural areas in the 1990s to save the decadent rural society.In the two rounds of urban and rural changes, Japan supported farmers to cope with the uncertainty of career transformation through a series of policies such as safety education and skill training, and provided all-round assistance for the career of new farmers after 2000. In the history of countermeasures for more than half a century, its core idea gradually condenses into the use of policy certainty to offset the great uncertainty of urban-rural changes.As far as China is concerned, the Enlightenment of this policy path can promote the mechanism of Co-Construction between officials and enterprises to deal with the uncertainty of career transformation, and in the work of rural revitalization, we can also refer to the measures of Japan's “community-reactivating cooperator squad” to help new farmers' de-embedding and re-embedding.