起点公平的统计测度与监测预警研究

文章界定了起点公平的内涵，设计了起点公平的评价指标，提出了起点公平的测度方法，构建了起点公平的预警机制。基于1985-2017年31个省份的面板数据，对我国起点公平进行统计测度和监测预警分析。研究结果表明：(1)我国(以及东部、中部与西部三大地区)起点公平度总体上处于比较公平状态，呈现上升趋势，其中就业公平度、公共自然资源公平度与公共基础设施公平度依次处于比较不公平、相对公平和比较公平状态，教育公平度与公共医疗卫生公平度处于非常公平状态；(2)现阶段与未来几年我国及三大地区起点公平度(教育公平度、就业公平度、公共医疗卫生公平度、公共基础设施公平度与公共自然资源公平度)总体上均处于无警状态。这一研究结论提供了重要的政策启示。

Research on Measurement and Early Warning of Starting Equity

This paper defines the connotation of starting equity, designs the evaluation indicators of starting equity, puts forward the measurement of starting equity, and constructs the early warning mechanism of starting equity. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 1985 to 2017, we carry out the measurement and early warning analysis of China’s starting equity. The results show that: (1) China’s starting equity (including our eastern, central and western regions respectively) is generally fair, and shows an upward trend. Among them, the fairness of employment, public natural resources and public infrastructure are in the states of being relatively unfair, relatively fair and quite fair respectively, and the fairness of education and public health care are extremely fair. (2) At present and in the next few years, the starting equity of our country and our three major regions (as well as the fairness of education, employment, public health care, public infrastructure and public natural resources) is generally in a state of no alarm. These findings provide important policy implications.