间断—平衡模型：长期政策变迁的非线性解释

政策变迁并非只是渐进的过程,重大的政策转变和政策中断也时常发生。以逻辑经验主义为基础的渐进主义模型只强调政策的渐进性变迁,而忽略政策的间断性变迁。建立在库恩科学范式基础上的政策研究不仅关注政策的渐进性变迁,而且也关注政策的间断性变迁。＂间断-平衡模型＂建立在有限理性决策和制度结构基础上,认为政府政策制定具有稳定性和间断性的特点。该模型有效解释了长期政策稳定过程中伴有偶尔急剧变迁的现象,为长期政策变迁提供了新的解释框架。本文介绍了＂间断-平衡模型＂的缘起、理论基础、核心观点、解释过程等几个方面,最后对模型进行简要评述。

Punctuated Equilibrium Model: Non-linear Interpretation of Policy Change

Policy Change is not just a incremental process,great policy changes and policy disruption also frequently take place in it.Logical empiricism-based on Incrementalism Model only emphasizes the incremental policy change,but ignores the punctuated change.Policy research based on Kuhn’s Paradigm concerns about not only the incremental policy change,but also the punctuated policy change.The "Punctuated Equilibrium Model" on the basis of limited rational decision and institutional structure argues the government policy-making process has the characteristics of stability and punctuation.The Model provides a new framework for the long period policy change by effectively explains the policy phenomena that long period policy stability with occasionally rapid changes.This article introduces the Model’s theoretical origin and basis,core viewpoints,the interpretation process,and gives a simple evaluation at last.