中国与东盟各国间的贸易与FDI关系实证研究

本文选取2003～2009年间中国与东盟各国贸易和直接投资面板数据,用实证方法研究中国和东盟各国间的贸易与对外直接投资(FDI)的关系,结果表明:中国对缅甸、印度尼西亚、老挝、新加坡、越南的FDI及新加坡对中国的FDI促进进口贸易、出口贸易、进出口总贸易;中国对文莱、柬埔寨、菲律宾的FDI及文莱对中国的FDI促进出口贸易;中国对柬埔寨的直接投资促进进出口总贸易;泰国对中国的FDI与进口贸易、出口贸易、进出口总贸易间存在替代效应。此外,对外直接投资和贸易具有极强的双向因果关系。

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship of Trade and FDI between China and ASEAN Countries

Based on China and ASEAN countries’ trade and direct investment panel data of 2003-2009,this paper analyzes the relationship of Trade and FDI between China and ASEAN countries by applying the method of empirical analysis.The results showed that:China’s FDI in Myanmar,Indonesia,Laos,Singapore and Vietnam and Singapore’s FDI in China have promoted the import trade,export trade,import and export total trade;China’s FDI in Brunei,Cambodia and Philippines and Brunei’s FDI in China have promoted the export trade;China’s FDI in Cambodia have promoted the import and export total trade;Thailand’s FDI in China has replace import trade,export trade,import and export total trade,and vice versa.In addition,there has a strong two-way causal relationship between foreign direct investment and trade.