网络舆情预测模型研究

互联网的飞跃发展,既孕育着机遇,同时也带来了前所未有的挑战。公共危机事件网络舆情正是诸多挑战带来"副产品"。为此,本文根据网络舆情传播特性,通过建立Lotka-Volterra模型,对网络舆情的演进过程做出了合理预测。本文考虑了政府和网民在网络舆情中的相互影响,建立两者间的竞争模型,预测竞争中可能产生的结果,寻找竞争中政府与网民间平衡点的位置,为政府在公共危机事件网络舆情发展过程中的干预行为提供依据,同时为衍生舆情的产生提供一定的解释。

A Study Based on the Prediction Model of Internet Public Opinion

The rapid development of internet not only breeds opportunities, but also brings unprecedented challenges. Internet public opinion of public crisis is a＆quot;byproduct＆quot;of the challenges. As a result, basing on the propagation feature of internet public opinion, this article makes a reasonable prediction of the evolution of internet public opinion though the establishment of Lotka-Volterra model. The article takes into consideration the mutual influences between government and netizens in terms of internet public opinion. The paper establishes the competition model between government and netizens, and then predicts the possible results out of the competition and looks for the equilibrium point of the two sides in the competition, so as to provide bases for government interference during the development process of internet public opinion of public crisis as well as certain explanations for the appearance of derivative public opinion.