Monetary policy and presidential elections: A nonpartisan political cycle

This paper develops a Federal Reserve reaction function which relates policy intentions to forecasts of policy objectives. Pre- and postpresidential election estimates of this reaction function for the post-Accord period of 1953–1984 suggest two conclusions:

(1)	the Federal Reserve reacts differently to economic conditions in the pre- and postelection biennia and
(2)	these differences in Fed behavior are not likely the result of partisan political influence, but rather the result of self-restraint by the Fed during preelection periods.