Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research期刊界 All Journals 搜尽天下杂志传播学术成果专业期刊搜索期刊信息化学术搜索

Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research

Affiliation:	1. Norwich Business School, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK;2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK;3. Mr. & Mrs. S.H. Wong Center for the Study of Multinational Corporations, 1922 Tice Valley Blvd., #2460, Walnut Creek, CA 94595, United States;1. Center of Mathematics, Computation and Cognition, Universidade Federal do ABC, Santo Andre, Brazil;2. Department of Psychiatry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil;3. Interdisciplinary Lab for Clinical Neurosciences (LiNC), Universidade Federal de Sao Paulo (UNIFESP), Sao Paulo, Brazil;4. Department of Psychiatry, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil;5. Bioinformatics Program, Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil;6. Institute of Psychiatry, King’s College London, United Kingdom;7. Department of Radiology, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil;8. National Institute of Developmental Psychiatry for Children and Adolescents, CNPq, Brazil

Abstract:	This article analyzes the effect of the expected closeness on turnout for 56 direct-democratic votes held in Switzerland between 2012 and 2015. It is the first study to measure the expected closeness by using data obtained from prediction markets. It clarifies empirically the relation between the expected closeness and the levels of turnout in direct democratic votes showing that the expected closeness of the result exerts a positive effect on participation levels.

Keywords:	Turnout Rationality Direct democracy Prediction markets Switzerland
本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏