| 基于ARIMA模型的山东省城市化水平预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵琳,陈一鸣.基于ARIMA模型的山东省城市化水平预测分析[J].山东行政学院山东省经济管理干部学院学报,2010(6):74-76. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵琳 陈一鸣 |
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| 作者单位： | 华东师范大学,上海200062 |
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| 摘 要： | 城市化是我国现代化建设的重要内容和目标,山东省作为我国的经济强省和人口大省,其城市化过程对区域经济、社会发展具有重大影响。在对山东省城市化发展进程和现状进行简要介绍的基础上,运用Eviews软件对1949-2008年的山东省城市化水平时间序列建立ARIMA模型,并预测了2009-2015年的山东省城市化水平的发展状况。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市化 ARIMA模型 山东省 |
Forecast on the Urbanization Level in Shandong Province Based on ARIMA Model |
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| ZHAO Lin,CHEN Yiming.Forecast on the Urbanization Level in Shandong Province Based on ARIMA Model[J].Journal of Shandong Administrative College and Shandong Economic Management Personnel College,2010(6):74-76. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Lin CHEN Yiming |
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| Institution: | (East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China) |
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| Abstract: | Urbanization is an important target and content of our modern construction.As an economy strong province and second largest population province,Urbanization of Shandong have a great impact on region economic and social development.Based on the introduction of the process and current situation of urbanization in Shandong province,we establish the model of ARIMA（1,1,1） and test the model＇s prediction with software Eviews.The time series is from 1949 to 2008. |
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| Keywords: | Urbanization ARIMA Model Shandong Province |
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