美国民众对军售台湾支持率的影响因素研究——基于美国人对华态度实证调研

美国对外政策的制定通常需要有民意基础，然而现有研究鲜有从美国民众的视角探究美国对台军售。本文基于美国人对华态度实证调研的数据，利用单因子试验法测试美国民众在“中美关系”和“对台军售”间的权衡，并采用logistic模型来检查影响美国民众对台军售支持率的主要因素。结果表明即使对台军售会严重恶化或危害中美关系，58％的美国民众依然支持美国对台军售。政治倾向（温和派）、媒体和信息渠道（收听广播和浏览网络频率）、个人因素（性别、年龄）等是影响美国民众对台军售支持率的主要因素。终止美国对台军售，我国一方面需要有更加强有力的反制措施，另一方面可以尝试通过长期规划的网络传播手段来扭转美国民众对对台军售的支持。

The Perspective of Public American on Arms Sales to Taiwan-Based on the Survey of American＇s Attitude towards China

The decision-making of US foreign policy is usually based on public opinion. However, there is less research on American＇s attitude towards US arms sales to Taiwan. Based on the empirical research data of American＇s attitude towards China, this research adopts the single-factor test method to test American＇s trade-off between the US-China relations and arms sales to Taiwan, using logistic regression model to examine the major influence factors on arms sales to Taiwan. The results show that 58% American still support the U. S. arms sales to Taiwan even if the Chinese government has stated that US arms sales to Taiwan has jeopardized or worsened US-China relations. Political tendencies （ moderates ）, media and information channels （ frequency of listening to the radio and browsing internet） ,personal factors （gender,age） are the main factors which have exerted significant influence on American＇s attitude toward its arms sales to Taiwan. In order to terminate the U.S. practice, China should, on the one hand, apply some stronger tit for tat measures, and on the other hand, try to use network to communicate with American and persuade them out of their support by mean of long-term planning.