Humanitarian futures and adaptive failures

Scientific and technological change will intensify over the next two decades, profoundly affecting the global economy and the environment, as well as demographic trends and political and security structures in most parts of the world. An unintended consequence may be an exponential rise in human exposure to disasters and emergencies. Such humanitarian crises may, in no small part, be due to planners’ inability to anticipate potential hazards and to appreciate their significance, and to decision-makers’ inability to reconcile competing demands for resources. This article suggests that most disasters and emergencies are the result of an individual and institutional failure to respond effectively to change, new information and contending interests. It explores various psychosocial approaches to individual and group dynamics, and utilises a range of organisational and political-science models to evaluate potential constraints on adaptive capacities. Ultimately, it proposes a five-point strategy to assist both policy-planners and decision-makers in thinking in a more ‘non-linear’ fashion and in being more responsive to the direction and implications of change.