Three scenarios for the future of China

As we begin to think about the twenty-first century, we are entering a time of fundamental global change. the most dramatic shift will be the movement of China to the status of great power. Yet, the only specific forecast for the future of China that we can make with confidence is that a straight-line extrapolation is most unlikely to occur. China will not continue to grow at double digit rates for the coming decade. Nor is the rest of Southeast Asia going to grow at the 8 percent that has been registered for the past decade and more. Nor is everything going to go smoothly.