我国劳动力结构的演变及其影响研究

劳动力是经济增长的关键要素之一,其变化对我国经济社会发展有着深刻影响。本研究根据第七次全国人口普查主要数据,结合改革开放后以往人口普查数据和分年度人口数据,分析了我国劳动力结构的演变规律及可能带来的影响。研究发现,40余年来,我国劳动力结构发生了根本性的变化,并开始面临劳动年龄人口减少、抚养负担加重、劳动力地区分布不均等问题,由此引致了消费需求、储蓄率、投资需求等降低的不利影响。但同时,劳动力结构变化也带来一定发展机遇,包括倒逼技术进步与劳动生产率提高、劳动力素质普遍提升、劳动工资水平持续提高等。研究认为,在"十四五"及未来更长的时期里,应抓住劳动力结构变化带来的机遇,主动迎接挑战,实现更加充分更高质量就业和国民经济持续稳定的发展。

A Study on the Evolution and Influence of China's Labor Force Structure

As one of the key elements of economic growth, labor force and its changes have a profound impact on China''s economic and social development. Based on the data of the seventh national census and combined with the previous census and annual population data after the reform and opening up, this study analyzes the evolution of China''s labor force structure and its possible impacts. The study finds that over the past 40 years, China''s labor force structure has undergone fundamental changes, which has begun to face problems such as a decrease in the working-age population, increased support burdens, and uneven distribution of labor in regions. This has led to the adverse effects of reduced consumer demand, savings rate, and investment demand. However, changes in the labor structure have also brought certain developmental opportunities, including forcing technological progress and labor productivity, the general improvement of labor quality, and the continuous increase of labor wages. The study believes that in the 14th Five-Year Plan Period and beyond, we should seize the opportunities brought about by changes in the labor force structure, take the initiative to cope with the challenges, and achieve more adequate and higher-quality employment and sustained and stable development of the national economy.