在变与不变中前行——-2011年拉美和加勒比形势回顾与展望

2011年拉美和加勒比地区形势保持相对平稳,其基本发展趋势没有改变.政治形势在稳定中有变化,选民更加务实,民生主导政治将成趋势,顺应民心的调整将成为常态,在变与不变中保持平衡成为拉美政治稳定的挑战.2012年墨西哥和委内瑞拉大选将对地区政治产生重要影响.拉美经济持续增长,宏观经济继续保持稳定,“反周期”政策作用明显.未来,拉美经济仍面临通胀和结构性调整的压力,欧债危机对拉美实体经济的影响不容忽视,世界经济低速常态化将会带来新挑战,个别国家和地区经济内在矛盾有可能激化.社会形势喜忧参半,就业和收入有所改善,极端贫困人口增加,毒品、有组织犯罪和暴力问题依然突出,部分国家印第安人自身利益与政府开发资源、发展经济的矛盾将有可能成为新的社会问题.对外关系基本格局未变,新的变化正在出现,区域合作分层化和自贸区板块化的趋势显现,地区主义出现不同选项,对外关系面临新的调整.

A Review of the Year:Latin America and the Caribbean in 2011

In 2011 Latin America and the Caribbean maintained stability politically and economically.There was emerging a growing trend of consolidation of democratic institutions.Regional governments,whatever they are leftwing or rightwing,initiated a variety of measures to meet popular demand.It is worth of attention that Mexico and Venezuela will hold important elections in 2012,which might pose challenges to political situation in the region.As a result of counter-cyclical policies,most regional countries achieved relative stability of macro economy and gained an economic growth.But they were under increasing pressure of conducting structural adjustments and combating inflation.External uncertain factors,especially the European debt crisis,might strike the substance economy in the region and undermine its economic growth in 2012.Thanks to sustained economic growth,social indicators in the region achieved an improvement.But,public insecurity was still one of the most concerned problems among local people.Regional countries devoted great efforts in promoting regional integrations and diversifying their foreign relations,which was shaping a new landscape of international relations in the region.The Obama administration took measures to boost the U.S.ties with some regional countries including Brazil and Chile.At the same time,it used economic leverages to impose pressures on regional countries such as Venezuela and Nicaragua.It is noteworthy that it took the initiative to advance FTA negotiations with regional countries aimed at forging a trade bloc centered on the U.S.leadership.