人民币困境与利率——一个中国经济的均衡分析框架

由于我国金融市场的刚性还比较强,政府目前可采用的金融手段并不多,一旦发生某种外生冲击,在均衡的意义上,政府很难同时实现就业增长、物价稳定、汇率稳定等主要目标,并可能出现人民币困境的问题。实现某种目标的政策的有效性依赖于对相关变量的把握及相关弹性的有效估计,更灵活的利率是经济体实现内外均衡的内在要求。

The Predicament of RMB and the Interest Rate-An Equilibrium Analyzing Framework of China Economy

The Chinese government doesn't have many financial measures to take since the financial market is rather rigid now.Once in unexpected clash,it will be very difficult for the government to achieve such goals,at the same time,as employment,GDP increase,valorization,stabilized exchange rate and so on.And RMB is probably falling in predicament.The efficiency of the policies made to achieve certain goals is dependent on the concerning variables and the effective evaluation of its flexibility.A more flexible interest rate is the inner need of the economic body to keep its internal and external equilibrium.