绿色消费的测度、分解与影响因素分析

缺乏科学客观的绿色消费评价指标体系，严重制约了宏观层面绿色消费的量化研究。基于宏观视角，借助两阶段贝叶斯模型平均法等方法开展了绿色消费的测度、分解与影响因素分析。通过构建包含生产、生活、生态三个子系统的绿色消费指数指标体系并测度发现：21世纪以来我国绿色消费指数不断上升，三个子系统指数的变化呈现出明显差异。指数分解发现：经济增长是我国绿色消费发展的最主要驱动力，技术不足和生态环境欠佳制约了中国绿色消费发展。从经济、技术和生态三方面检验影响我国绿色消费的主要因素发现：总效应方面，投资和城市化对绿色消费发展具有重要拉动作用，由于研发投入成本高，前期创新投入对我国绿色消费发展有负向影响；经济分效应方面，投资和产业结构对绿色消费经济效应有正向促进作用，创新投入和生态修复具有负向作用；技术和生态分效应方面，消费、投资、生态修复对绿色消费技术效应和生态效应有促进作用，创新投入对于技术效应和生态效应具有负向影响。

Measurement,Decomposition and Influencing Factor Analysis of Green Consumption

The lack of scientific and objective green consumption index system prevents the academic circles from doing more quantitative analysis on green consumption on the macro level. From the macro perspective we conduct the measurement, decomposition and influencing factor analysis of green consumption with the help of Two-stage Bayesian Model Average. The index decomposition shows that economic growth is the main driving force for the development of green consumption in China, and the lack of technology and poor ecological environment restrict the development of green consumption in China. The analysis of influencing factors shows that from the perspective of total effect, investment and urbanization play an important role in driving the development of green consumption. Due to the high cost of R&D investment, early innovation investment has a negative impact on the development of green consumption in China. In terms of economic sub effects, investment and industrial structure have a positive role in promoting the economic effect of green consumption, while innovation investment and ecological restoration have a negative role. In terms of technology and ecological effects, consumption, investment and ecological restoration promote the technology and ecological effects of green consumption, while innovation investment has a negative effect on technology and ecological effects.