商业理念还是地缘政治?——欧美在欧洲对俄天然气进口依赖上的分歧根源及其影响

俄欧天然气关系是跨大西洋伙伴关系中极具争议的议题。欧洲对俄天然气的商业理念之核心,是通过制度设计约束俄罗斯行为的不确定性,同时通过器物层面的天然气基础设施建设和进口多元化,降低俄罗斯中断天然气供给的潜在威胁,最终使俄罗斯成为安全可靠的天然气供给来源。在有关俄欧天然气关系的地缘政治思维上,美国已不仅仅着眼于俄天然气是否会对欧洲能源安全构成威胁,而是更多地将俄天然气视为助长其对外行为能力的重要工具加以限制。随着欧洲对俄天然气进口依赖增强与美国经济制裁力度加大,美欧俄面临经济制裁与国家治理的困境。这一困境可能导致跨大西洋伙伴关系的裂痕加深。欧盟能否通过地缘政治转向应对不断加剧的天然气地缘竞争,取决于其将经济力量变为政治意图的现实可能与效果。

Commercial Concept or Geopolitics?—Origins for the Disparities between Europe and the US on European Gas Dependence on Russia and Its Impacts

The relation between Russia and Europe in the natural gas sector is a highly controversial topic in the transatlantic partnership.The core element of Europe’s commercial concept in relation to its dependence on Russian gas is to restrict the uncertainty of Russia’s behavior through institutional design and at the same time to reduce the potential threat by Russia’s possible interruption of gas supply through pipeline interconnection and diversified supply sources in order to make Russia a safe and reliable source of supply.In terms of geopolitical thinking,the US not only focuses on the issue whether Russian gas poses a threat to European energy security,but views it as an important instrument by which Russia is to enhance its external capability.As European dependence on Russian gas has been deepened and US sanctions intensified,the US,Europe and Russia are now facing the dilemma of economic sanctions and statecraft,which may aggravate the rift between the transatlantic partnership.The issue whether the EU can respond effectively to the intensified geopolitical competition in the field of natural gas through a geopolitical shift depends on the practical possibility and real effect for it to turn the economic power into political intent.