“十四五”及更长一段时期高校毕业生等青年劳动力供需趋势研究

青年劳动力的供给与需求情况是分析青年就业问题的关键。研究使用第七次全国人口普查数据、 《中国劳动统计年鉴》数据和《中国教育统计年鉴》数据，对“十四五”及更长一段时期我国青年劳动力供给 和分行业的新增劳动力需求情况进行了分析。研究发现：2010 年以来，我国高校毕业生数量呈现扩张趋势，供 给不断增加；预测结果显示，从当前到 2035 年，我国劳动力市场将面临供大于求的非均衡态势，特别是高校毕 业生数量增多和扩招积压效应叠加，高校毕业生等青年群体就业压力将进一步凸显。研究建议，可以从增强人 岗匹配度、优化就业条件、加强就业帮扶、积极引导青年投身乡村振兴等 4 个方面化解供给冲击和结构矛盾， 促进广大高校毕业生等青年群体实现高质量充分就业。

Research on the Supply and Demand Trend of College Graduates and Youth Labor Force in the 14th Five-Year Plan Period and Beyond

The supply and demand situation of youth labor force is crucial for analyzing the youth employment issue. This study, using data from the Seventh National Census, China Labor Statistical Yearbook, and China Education Statistical Yearbook, analyzes the situation of youth labor force supply and the new labor demand in various industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and beyond. The study fi nds that the number of college graduates in China is showing an expanding trend since 2010, with a continuous increase in supply. The forecast results show that from the present to 2035, China''s labor market will face an imbalanced situation with oversupply, especially due to the increasing number of college graduates and the backlog effect of expanding enrollment, the employment pressure on college graduates and other youth groups will be further highlighted. To promote high-quality and full employment for college graduates and other youth groups, the study suggests that supply shock and structural contradictions be resolved through enhancing job matching, optimizing employment conditions, strengthening employment assistance, and actively guiding youth to participate in rural revitalization programs.