中国汉族女性青少年法医学活体骨龄推断数学模型的建立

目的建立推断中国汉族女性青少年活体骨龄的数学模型。方法摄取华中、华南及华东等地区的838名年龄介于11～20周岁正常女性青少年双侧锁骨胸骨端以及左侧肩、肘、腕、髋、膝、踝关节的X线片。依据青少年骨发育分级标准对24项骨骼发育指标进行阅片、分级,结合考虑身高、体质量及地区等影响因素．应用SAS8．1及SPSS11．0软件进行统计学处理,探索各指标与年龄的相关性。结果建立了我国汉族女性青少年利用锁骨胸骨端及6大关节骨骺闭合程度联合推断活体年龄的多元回归数学模型．推导出判定我国汉族女性青少年是否已满14、16和18周岁的Fisher’S两类判别分析方程。结论本研究所建立的判定活体年龄的数学模型丰富了活体年龄的法医学鉴定方法,有利于提高活体骨龄鉴定方法的科学性和结论的准确性。

Mathematical models of forensic bone age assessment of living subjects in Chinese Han female teenagers

Objective To establish mathematical models which are used to assess bone age of living subjects in Chinese Han female teenagers.Methods Radiographs were taken from 838 normal Chinese female subjects aged from 11 to 20 years old including sternal end of clavical and the left side of shoulder,elbow,carpal,hip,knee and ankle joints,which were from Middle China,South China and East China.Then read and grade the 24 osteal loci in accordance with the grading criteria of skeletal growth of teenagers.Meanwhile,the influencing factors such as:height,body mass and location are all taken into account.To explore the associativity between each index and chronological age,all the statistic procedures were finished by SAS 8.1 and SPSS 11.0.Results To construct several combining multiple regression mathematical models that use the arrested extent of epiphysis of sternal end of clavical and six joints to assess the chronological age of living subjects in Chinese Han female teenagers,and establish some Fisher's discriminatory analysis equations which are used to determine whether the chronological age of Chinese Han female teenagers has been to 14,16 and 18 years old or not.Conclusion These mathematical models which used to assess the age of living subjects has profused the methods of forensic bone age identification of living subjects.It also made the methods and conclusions much more scientific and accurate.