事实认定的概率分析

根据概率分析所涉及证据数量的不同,事实认定概率分析可分为单一证据维度和证据组合维度。在单一证据维度中,司法鉴定领域会不断涌现像DNA证据那样兼具实证统计数据和高度科学确认度的统计概率证据。在证据组合维度中,事实认定不可能通过数学推理实现,其原因主要有：事实认定过程复杂,数学推理难以模拟;数学推理并非司法证明思维的＂母语＂,而是一门需要翻译的＂外语＂;数学推理会通过＂量＂上的运算模糊、混淆乃至掩盖了＂质＂上的差别。

Probability Analysis in Fact Finding

According to the amount of evidence involved in probability analysis, probability analysis in fact-finding can be divided into the dimensions of single evidence and combined evidence. In the dimension of single evidence, there will be more and more statistical probability evidence of forensic identification based on empirical statistical data, such as DNA, which has high scientific certainty. In the dimension of combined evidence, fact-finding cannot be achieved by mathematical inference, the reasons are as follows： the process of fact-finding is so complex that it cannot be simulated by mathematical inference; mathematical inference is not the ＂mother tongue＂ of judicial proof but a ＂foreign language＂, which needs to be translated for understanding; through a calculation on quantity, mathematical inference may confuse, or even cover the difference in quality in fact-finding.