中国公众的获得感——指标构建、时空变迁和宏观机制

利用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)城乡居民十年近8万人的大样本,以个人幸福感、阶层流动感和阶层自我定位三大指标为外显变量,通过潜类分析方法构建起群众获得感的HMS模型和五级指标。结合省级统计年鉴数据,以动态面板模型探讨省域获得感的宏观影响机制。研究发现,在2005—2015年间,(1)我国超过一半的公众具有中高或高度获得感,但仍有三分之一群体获得感为中低或低度;(2)各省群众获得感随时间呈现较为一致的平缓上升趋势,但存在较大空间差异;(3)在省域层面,收入、健康和安全等民生指标对获得感有显著的支撑作用,但GDP增长指标和市场化、城镇化等转型指标,以及部分社会发展指标,尚未能起到应有的拉升效用,值得引起重视。

Sense of Fulfillment of the Chinese Public:Indicator Construction,Temporal and Spatial changes,and Macro Mechanisms

An HMS model and a five tier index for the public’s sense of fulfillment are constructed through latent class analysis based on three exponent variables including sense of personal happiness,sense of class mobility,and subjective social status on the basis of a big sample of nearly 80000 urban and rural residents surveyed in 10 years in Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS).Provincial level annual data are integrated to analyze the macro-level mechanisms of intra-province sense of fulfillment with dynamic model of panel data.It is revealed that from 2005 to 2015,(1)over half of the public in our country show medium high to high levels of sense of fulfillment while one third show medium low or low levels;(2)inter-provincial public senses of fulfillment show similar flat rise trend but significant cross sectional variansce;(3)provincially,livelihood indicators such as income,health and security significantly support the sense of fulfillment,but warningly neither transitional indicators such as GDP growth rate,marketization,and urbanization,nor certain social development indicators played any lifting role expected.