美中贸易协调性的实证分析:垂直专业化视角

基于2005～2012年的月度数据进行实证分析,协整检验结果表明,美国对华出口与从中国进口存在长期稳定的协整关系。从误差修正模型看,短期内美国对华出口与从中国进口之间存在动态调整机制。根据格兰杰因果关系检验,在滞后6期内,美国对华出口与从中国进口之间只存在单向的因果关系,美国对华出口是美国从中国进口的格兰杰原因,美国对华出口增长是美国从中国进口增长的决定因素。脉冲响应函数分析表明,美国对华出口的某一冲击会给美国从中国进口增长带来同向冲击。这些实证结果表明垂直专业化分工在驱动着美中贸易,政府在制定平衡美中贸易的政策时,不应忽视垂直专业化分工以及市场对维持美中双边贸易均衡的约束机制。

Empirical Analysis on Coordination of US-China Trade: In the Perspective of Vertical Specialization

Based on the monthly data of 2005-2012,by using the econometric method,this paper discusses the relationship between US exports to China and US imports from China.The empirical results show that there exits a long-run co-integration relationship and a one-way causality between the changes of US exports to China and US imports from China.With the error correction model,the results show that the short-term fluctuation of US exports to China would cause the same way change of US imports from China.With the impulse response function,the results show that US exports to China plays an important role on US imports from China.As a result,vertical specialization could be taken into consideration of policy of balancing US-China bilateral trade.