世界政治“平靖进程”的技术变迁支撑

二战后,世界政治经历了"平靖进程",具体体现为:"大国罕有战事""国家罕有消亡"。本文融合国际政治经济学与国际安全研究,展示二战后的技术变迁改变了大国的"意愿"与"能力",支撑了世界政治新变化。在马尔萨斯时代,由于技术水平低下,生存物资稀缺,生存保障匮乏,人类面临持续的安全难题。二战后,技术发展影响了当代大国的"意愿"与"能力",让世界政治呈现新变化。技术变迁给大国提供了更为丰富的选择,让大国使用武力征服的意愿降低;同时,随着技术变迁,尤其是在"核革命"后,大国确保自身安全的能力更强,使得"大国罕有战事"。得益于技术变迁,大国利益半径扩大,即便距离遥远地域的变化也与自身息息相关,大国保障遥远海外利益的意愿提升;同时,技术变迁扩大了大国的权力投射,让世界各国,尤其是大国保障体系稳定的能力更强,致使"国家罕见消亡"。随着技术变迁,世界政治已呈现出很多与传统智慧不同的方面,孕育国际交往的新理念。

The "Pacification Process" in World Politics and It's Technological Dynamics

Since the end of the World War II,world politics has experienced a "pacification process",which has two related aspects. Firstly,great powers rarely go to war. Secondly,countries rarely die out. This paper integrates the study of international political economy and international security to show that the technological changes after World War II have changed the "willingness" and "capability" of great powers and underpinned this "pacification process". In Malthus’ s time,largely due to the low-level of technological development,both materials and guarantees for survival were scarce,human beings were faced with continuous security problems. Since the end of World War II,technological development has changed the "willingness" and "capability" of modern states. Then,we can observe new changes in world politics. Technological change has empowered great powers with more choices and made them less willing to use force. Meanwhile,technological changes,especially since the "nuclear revolution",have made great powers more capable of ensuring their own security. Changing "willingness" and "capability" made great powers rarely go to war. Due to the technological change,the interests of major countries have expanded. Even minor changes in distant regions are closely related to them,and great powers are more willing to protect their distant overseas interests. At the same time,technological change has expanded the power projection of great powers across oceans. Thus,they are more willing to and have stronger capabilities to guarantee the stability of international systems. Changing "willingness" and "capability" of great powers made states,including small states,are less likely to die. With technological change,world politics has undergone propounding changes which is different from traditional wisdoms. These changes are breeding new ideas of international relations.