Bayesian framework for the evaluation of fiber evidence in a double murder--a case report

Fiber evidence found on a suspect vehicle was the only useful trace to reconstruct the dynamics of the transportation of two corpses. Optical microscopy, UV-Vis microspectrophotometry and infrared analysis were employed to compare fibers recovered in the trunk of a car to those of the blankets composing the wrapping in which the victims had been hidden. A "pseudo-1:1" taping permitted to reconstruct the spatial distribution of the traces and to further strengthen the support to one of the hypotheses. The Likelihood Ratio (LR) was calculated, in order to quantify the support given by forensic evidence to the explanations proposed. A generalization of the Likelihood Ratio equation to cases analogous to this has been derived. Fibers were the only traces that helped in the corroboration of the crime scenario, being absent any DNA, fingerprints and ballistic evidence.