关于撒哈拉以南非洲政局走势的研判

北非动荡不仅对中东阿拉伯世界造成直接的冲击,而且对撒哈拉以南非洲政局也构成潜在的影响。在此背景下,由于确实存在诸多有可能引发动荡的社会政治经济因素,撒哈拉以南非洲局部,即某些国家的政局动荡或许难免,但总体稳定的态势不会改变;即便一些撒哈拉以南非洲国家发生动乱,在性质上亦有别于北非国家,更不会像北非地区那样产生扩散效应,覆盖整个次区域,原因在于撒哈拉以南非洲国家在民族结构、宗教信仰、文化传统,特别是政治改革和政治治理等方面均与包括北非在内的中东阿拉伯国家存在较大差异。总体稳定、局部动荡仍不失为非洲政局之常态。

Viewpoints on the Tendency to Sub-Saharan Africa Political Situation

The Turmoil taking place in North Africa has not only made a direct impact on the Arab world in the Middle East, but also posed a potential threat on sub-Saharan Africa. In terms of the future political trend in Africa: firstly, some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, the political turmoil may be inevitable; but situation in Africa overall may keep stability. Secondly, even if unrest may occur in some countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, it will be different from what happened in North African; the unrest here wi...