A model of local crime displacement

In this paper, we develop a two-region model of crime spatial displacement. For high crime regions, the crime rate in one locality is negatively influenced by the crime rate of the other. The magnitude of the displacement depends on the distance between the two regions and on their relative size. For given sized neighbors, a closer distance implies greater displacement. When one region is larger, relative to the other, this increases the displacement, holding distance fixed. Examples show that the displacement from the treated to the adjacent areas can be small, if the relative size of the former is small. Nonetheless, the displacement can be large for other nearby areas, provided that the treated region is relatively big. Neglecting this result can cause an upward bias at the estimated impact of a policy. We also analyze the consequences for the design of public policies.