后ECFA时代两岸政治关系的走向:基于相互依赖理论的研究

海峡两岸经济合作框架协议(ECFA)的签署使两岸的经贸合作走向了制度化的轨道,将推动两岸间的经济相互依赖程度进一步加深。后ECFA时代两岸政治关系将如何走向受到广泛关注,既有文献在这个问题上存在较大分歧。本文基于国际关系中的相互依赖理论,构建双边冲突升级的动态博弈模型,对ECFA将如何影响两岸政治关系的内在机理进行探讨。本文的主要结论是,ECFA签署后,随着两岸经济相互依赖程度的不断加深,两岸发生低级别冲突的概率将会增加,但是低级别冲突升级为战争的概率下降。从长期看来,ECFA将对两岸的政治关系产生积极影响。

How Will ECFA Affect Cross-Strait Political Relationship:A Research Based on Economic Interdependence Theory

After the signature of Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement(ECFA),the economic cooperation has stepped on an institutionalized track,which will undoubtedly deepen the level of economic interdependence across the Taiwan Strait.Which direction will the Cross-Strait political relationships be led to in post-ECFA era?The question,about which the extant literature has reached different conclusions,has attracted great attention.Based on Economic Interdependence Theory,this paper constructs a dynamic game model of dyadic conflict escalation and tries to explore how ECFA affects Cross-Strait political relationship.The conclusions are: after the signature of ECFA,the low-level conflict between the two sides will increase while the probability of low-level conflict escalating to war will decrease with the deepening of economic interdependence.In the long term,ECFA will pose a positive influence on the Cross-Strait political relationships.