南海争端准联盟化评析

2011年5月以来,南海争端高潮迭起,东南亚各国加紧行动,不仅加强了内部沟通,还极力争取外部协调,内外联动,以求推动在南海争端中造成一个针对中国的准联盟。他们采取协调立场、联合军演、共同开发以及多边施压等诸多方式,对抗中国在南海问题上的权益主张。该准联盟因多重动机汇聚而成,旨在通过多边主义、议题联系对中国进行软式制衡。因其内在局限以及东亚一体化的积极进展,中国对该准联盟不必做过激反应,但也应注意该准联盟对中国在国家形象、周边关系与地区合作上的负面冲击。

An Analysis of the Quasi-alliance of the South China Sea Disputes

The South China Sea disputes have become more fierce since May,2011,as quite a few southeast Asian countries begin to take more active moves,not only to strengthen the internal communication among them, but also to get external support,thus forming a quasi-alliance against China.Those involved began to take measures like inner-coordination,joint military exercises with extra-regional powers,joint development of oil and gas resources,and imposition of multilateral pressure on China over South China Sea.Driven by multiple motives and multilateralism,the quasi-alliance has adopted the strategy of soft check and balance.China does not have to overreact to it but should keep an eye on the negative impact of it on China’s image,its relations with neighboring countries and its regional cooperation.