Further findings on the deterrence question and strategies for future research

Findings for recent data (circa 1970) are consistent with previous purported tests of the deterrence doctrine. For each of seven types of crime there is an inverse relation among the states of the U.S. between the rate and the certainty of imprisonment, but there is no significant relation between the rate and severity of imprisonment (length of sentence served). Although the findings justify reconsideration of the deterrence doctrine, the utility of further tests is questionable without first restating the doctrine as a systematic theory, one that incorporates (inter alia) perceptual variables pertaining to punishment (e.g. perceived certainty of punishment). However, several empirical question should be contemplated prior to stating a deterrence theory; and conventional data (e.g. published statistics on imprisonment) can be used to answer some of those questions.