现代农业前瞻：广阔的微生物农业——兼以科技经济学辨析“资源稀缺”、“边际效用”

石化农业已走到尽头,要靠科技创新实现农业产业革命,开拓高端生态农业。近一万年的人类农业主要致力利用生物中的植物、动物（称＂二维农业＂）,对于作为第三界的微生物认知和利用差距甚远。而科技创新可使生态环境的可优化性与资源利用的深广性相统一,冲破资源稀缺和边际效用的绝对化界限,可以拓展和构建新的产业,这就是钱学森提出的微生物农业。它可分为两大部分：一是主要以循环形式优化＂二维农业＂;二是发展为独立的产业,成为未来农业产业革命的一大新兴产业。其发展分近期、中期、长期、远期四步,未来可以克服＂二维农业＂限制,真正实现农业＂工厂化＂。现在起步应当集中优势兵力攻关,逐步推广、提升,远期实现根本性变革。

Prospect of Modern Agriculture: the Promising Microbe Agriculture: from the Analysis of "Resource Scarcity" and "Marginal Utility" in Technical Economics

The petrochemical agriculture is coming to an end, and high -end ecological agriculture must be de- veloped through the industrial revolution of agriculture based on technological innovation. The agriculture of nearly ten thousand years mainly utilizes plants and animals （two- dimension agriculture） ,but has little cogni- tion and use of the third dimension, i. e. , microbe. Technological innovation can combine the optimization of eco- logical environment and the depth and wideness of resource utilization, break through the absolute limits of re- source scarcity and marginal utility, and expand and develop new industries. This is why Qian Xuesen brought forward the concept of microbe agriculture. It can be divided into two parts ： one is the two - dimension agricul- ture optimized mainly through recycling, and the other is a newly emerging independent industry based on the in- dustrial revolution of agriculture. To be developed in four stages, the near future, the mid term, the long term, and the far future, microbe agriculture can overcome the limits of two - dimensional agriculture and actually real- ize ＂factory farming＂. In the initial stage now, we should concentrate our forces to solve the major problems and make improvement step by step, so as to realize thorough change in the far future.