中国人口老龄化对经济发展的影响机制及对策研究

人口老龄化与少子化已经成为我国人口结构的基本特征，将对我国经济高质量发展产生深远的影响。最新公布的全国第七次人口普查数据显示我国人口老龄化呈现四个特征：人口老龄化省际差异大、未来会加速进入深度老龄化社会、城市人口老龄化问题更加严重以及“未富先老”等。人口老龄化会通过影响劳动力供给、社会资本形成以及技术创新三个方面影响经济发展。“十四五”期间积极应对人口老龄化，需要“放大”其对经济发展的正面效应，“缩小”负面效应，实行一揽子政策,从三个方面着手，分别是：增加全社会劳动力供给以及挖掘人口“二次红利”、通过不同渠道养老资金的统筹安排促进全社会资本形成以及通过拉动消费促进产业结构升级与技术创新。

Influence Mechanism and Countermeasures of China's AgingPopulation on Economic Development

Population aging and fewer children have become the basic characteristics of China's population structure, which will have a profound impact on the high-quality development of China's economy. According to the data of the seventh national population census released recently, China's population aging presents four basic characteristics: large inter provincial differences in population aging, accelerated entry into a deep aging society in the future, more serious problem of urban population aging and “getting old before getting rich”. Population aging will affect economic development in three aspects: labor supply, social capital formation and technological innovation. To cope with the aging population during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, we need to enlarge the positive effect on economic development and reduce the negative effect. We need to implement a package of policies via three paths: increasing the supply of labor force in the whole society, tapping the “second dividend” of the population, increasing the labor supply of the whole society, and increasing the “second dividend” of the population Through the overall arrangement of pension funds in different channels, we can promote the formation of social capital, and promote the upgrading of industrial structure and technological innovation by stimulating consumption.