房价上涨的途径——财政、人口与预期的再验证

在国家“六稳”、“六保”的政策目标下，稳定房价具有较大现实意义。基于中国267个地级市2006-2018年的面板数据，通过联立方程模型实证研究地方财政支出、人口迁移以及预期对房价的影响。结果显示，市场对房价上涨的预期是推升房价上涨的主要因素，此外，全国层面的房价受到地方财政支出资本化的正向作用，东、中部地区房价受到人口迁移数量的显著影响，西部地区房价受到第三产业占比的支撑。因此，稳定房价的关键途径是维持购房者的市场信心，确保人口流入有助稳定东、中部地区房价?确保第三产业发展则是 稳定西部房价的重要途径。

Effective Way to Stabilize Housing Prices:Revalidation of Finance,Population, and Expectations

Housing price stability is related to the stability of employment, finance, investment, and expectations. Based on the panel data of 267 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2018, this paper uses the simultaneous equation model to demonstrate the impact of local fiscal expenditure, population migration, and expectation on housing price. The research results show that the market expectation of house pricerising is the main driving factor of the rise. Besides, housing prices at the national level are positively affected by the capitalization of local fiscal expenditure, and housing prices in the eastern and central regions are significantly affected by population migration, and housing prices in the western region are supported by the proportion of the tertiary industry. Therefore, the key to stabilize house prices is to maintain the market confidence of the house buyers, to ensure the inflow of population helps to stabilize the housing prices in the eastern and central regions, and to ensure the development of the tertiary industry is an important way to stabilize the house price in the western region.