再论推定

推定是指通过对基础事实与未知事实之间常态联系的肯定来认定事实的特殊方法。推定必须有真实的基础事实;推定的基础事实必须是一项具有盖然效力的证据,证据盖然效力蕴含的两种可能性应构成常态联系和变态联系的关系;推定必须遵循择优规则,即在事实之间的常态联系和变态联系中,只能肯定常态联系,不能肯定变态联系。推定有两种效力:第一种效力是引发举证责任的转移,这是程序上的效力;第二种效力是让对方承担不利后果,这是实体上的效力;第一种效力具有必然性,第二种效力则具有可能性。

Re-discussion of Presumption

Presumption is a special way to establish facts through the affirmation of the normal linkage between foundational facts and unknown facts. To conclude the presumption, there must be true founda- tional facts;the foundational facts to be presumed must be evidences with probability;the two possibili- ties inherent in the probability should form the relationship between the normal linkage and the abnormal linkage;and we should follow the rule of priority, which means that in the normal linkage and abnormal linkage of facts we must affirm the formal rather than the latter. There are two sequences of a presump- tion, one is the procedural sequence with inevitability to happen, bringing the transfer of the proof bur- den between parties;the other is the substantial sequence with the possibility to happen, making the oth- er party assume disadvantageous results.