“孟不印尼”合作倡议及其发展趋势

孟不印尼(BBIN)合作倡议是由印度发起的一个南亚东北部次区域合作倡议。目的是绕开长期被印巴矛盾拖累的南盟,通过在印度东部、孟加拉国、尼泊尔和不丹之间建立一个涉及公路、铁路、内河运输、航空和电力网络的次区域联通体系,推动南亚东部次区域一体化进程。目前,孟不印尼倡议的里程碑机动车协议已经达成但尚未完全生效。铁路联通协议开始讨论并已有前期收获,其他领域尚未进入正式谈判阶段。孟不印尼合作倡议体现了相关国家和地区对互联互通的渴望与要求,符合该地区的长远利益。印度试图借此解决其东北部的交通瓶颈问题,巩固其南亚交通枢纽的地位,并试图在更大地理范围内扩大印度的地缘优势。但是,这一倡议受到印度国家能力的限制以及与其他成员国之间复杂关系的影响。一方面,印度东部地区经济发展水平低下,不足以成为吸引周边国家的经济发动机。另一方面,BBIN国家经济发展水平相近,经济结构高度相似,经济互补性有限。成员国从BBIN倡议中获得的潜在收益,可能会不如预期,将挫伤相关国家的积极性。再加上资金保障不力、管理机制对接困难,BBIN的推进将会比较困难。

BBIN Initiative and Its Development Trend

TheBangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal(BBIN)initiative is a subregional cooperation initiative in Northeast South Asia initiated by India.The purpose is to bypass SAARC,which has long been dragged down by conflicts between India and Pakistan,and establish a sub-regional connectivity system involving roads,railways,inland water transport,aviation and power networks between eastern India,Bangladesh,Nepal and Bhutan.At present,the milestonemotor vehicle agreementof the BBIN has been reached but has not yet fully taken effect.The railway connection agreement has begun to be discussed and has had early gains,and other areas have not yet entered the formal negotiation stage.The BBIN reflects the desire and requirements of relevant countries and regions for interconnection and is in line with the long-term interests of the region.India is trying to solve the traffic bottleneck problem in its northeast,consolidating its status as a transportation hub in South Asia,and trying to expand India’s geographic advantages in a larger geographic area.However,this initiative is affected by India’s limited national capabilities and complex relations with other member countries.On the one hand,the low level of economic development in eastern India is not enough to become an economic engine to attract neighboring countries.On the other hand,BBIN countries have similar economic development levels,highly similar economic structures,and limited economic complementarity.The potential benefits that member states may obtain from the BBIN may not be as expected.This damages the enthusiasm of relevant countries.Coupled with inadequate financial guarantees and difficulty in docking management mechanisms,the advancement of BBIN will be difficult.