| Abstract: | There is evidence that past and current forecasts by the Social Security Administration (SSA) substantially underestimate future U.S. Populations of age 65 and older. The policy significance of this can be seen in the forecasts by other researchers that predict outlays of $30 to $50 billion more for Social Security retirees in the year 2000 than projected by the SSA. Clearly, we need an improved 15-to 20-year forecast of the aged—one that combines the use of time-series forecasting methods and expert opinions on future mortality trends. This forecast would supplement SSA's current long-term (75-year) actuarial projections and provide policy makers with improved information for monitoring Social Security and other programs for the aged. This article recommends that independent advisory groups be established to provide SSA with advice to support development of this shorter-term forecast. |
