论侦查推理中的或然性推理

或然性推理由于其结论不必然为真 ,在形式逻辑体系中一直未受到重视。然而 ,或然性推理不要求推理前提绝对真实可靠 ,也不要求推理形式严格有效 ,因此 ,在侦查推理中被大量运用。在侦查破案活动中 ,由于客观情况复杂多变 ,侦查推理的前提不可能做到绝对真实可靠 ,并且侦查推理的形式灵活多样 ,很难保证其完全符合形式逻辑推理的规则 ,因此 ,侦查活动中运用的推理可以是、而且更多的情况下是或然性的推理

On the Probable Inference in Criminal Investigation

The probable inference has been ignored all the time because its conclusion is not always true. However, since it is unnecessary for its premise to be absolutely credible and its inference pattern to be strictly effective, it has been used in great extent in criminal investigation. During the criminal investigative activities for crac king cases, the premise of inference is impossible to be absolutely reliable due to the complex and changeable objective conditions, what's more, there are various flexible patterns of inferences in criminal investigation, so that it’s difficult to enable them to completely suit to the principles of logical inference, therefore, the inference implemented in criminal investigative activities may be, and should be the probable inference under most circumstances