Race, Income, and College in 25 Years: Evaluating Justice O'Connor's Conjecture

In Grutter v. Bollinger, Justice O’Connor conjecturedthat in 25 years affirmative action in college admissions willbe unnecessary. We project the test score distribution of blackand white college applicants 25 years from now, focusing onthe role of black–white family income gaps. Economic progressalone is unlikely to narrow the achievement gap enough in 25years to produce today’s racial diversity levels withrace-blind admissions. A return to the rapid black–whitetest score convergence of the 1980s could plausibly cause blackrepresentation to approach current levels at moderately selectiveschools, but not at the most selective schools.