政府行政成本对经济增长影响的空间效应与门槛效应研究

采用空间计量模型与门槛面板模型，对2010-2015年的省际面板数据，检验政府行政成本对省域经济增长的影响。空间效应模型分析发现：各省政府行政成本和经济增长间存在明显的空间关联性，整体而言地方政府行政成本能够促进经济增长，二者在空间集聚类型和区域分布上，在中西部大部分地区保持一致，政府行政成本高值(低值)集聚区一般是经济增长的高值(低值)集聚区，而在东部地区出现差异。门槛效应模型分析发现：行政成本很低时，对经济增长的影响并不显著；行政成本处于第一、二门槛值之间时，促进经济增长的系数提高，显著性增强；当政府行政成本超过第二门槛值时，不利于经济增长。建议将政府行政成本控制在最优区间。

Impact of Government Administrative Cost on Economic GrowthBased on the Spatial Effect and Threshold Effect Analysis ofProvincial Government Panel Data

This paper uses the spatial panel model and the threshold panel model to study the provincial panel data 2010-2015 and analyze the impact of government administrative cost on local economic growth. The spatial panel model analysis shows that there is a clear spatial correlation between the administrative costs and economic growth of the provincial governments. Overall, the administrative costs of local governments can promote economic growth. Both are in the spatial agglomeration type and regional distribution, and in most parts of the central and western regions are consistent with the high value of government administrative costs. The high (low) value agglomeration areas are generally high (low) value concentration areas of economic growth. But there are differences in the eastern region. The analysis of the threshold panel model shows that the impact of economic growth is not significant when the administrative cost is very low. When the administrative cost is between the first and second thresholds, the coefficient of economic growth is improved and the significant increase is obvious. When the administrative cost of government exceeds the second threshold, the promotion of economic growth effect was inhibited. Therefore the government administrative costs should be controlled at a reasonable level.