美国新中亚战略评析

美国公布新的中亚战略包含四方面调整,即将中亚地区视为独立的地缘政治板块、将阿富汗视为中亚一部分、明确将在中亚加强对俄罗斯和中国的遏制、重新界定美国在该地区的比较优势。新中亚战略的实施将会对中亚地区稳定和主要大国在该地区互动产生一定影响。但由于美国在实施该战略中投入力度有限、比较优势不明显,中亚国家不会轻易改变自身多元平衡外交政策、对阿富汗及其局势的认知与美有明显差异,以及美国在中亚地区的战略冒进可能引发大国反制,新战略的实施不会一帆风顺。

A Review of the US New Strategy for Central Asia

The U.S.government announced a new Central Asia strategy which has four big changes,treating the region as an independent geopolitical area,seeing Afghanistan as part of Central Asia,clearly strengthening its containment of Russia and China in Central Asia,and redefining America’s comparative advantage in the region.The implementation of the strategy will exert a certain impact on the stability of Central Asia and the interaction among major powers in the region.However,the implementation of the strategy will not go smoothly with several factors at play:America has limited investment and no obvious comparative advantage in implementing the strategy;Central Asian countries will not easily change their pluralistic and balanced foreign policies;Central Asian countries’cognition of Afghanistan and its situation is significantly different from that of the United States;America’s aggressive strategy in Central Asia may provoke a backlash from other major powers.