Success and Failure of Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Multivariate Analysis

This paper tests five hypotheses explaining thesuccess and failure of fiscal consolidation in amultivariate regression framework. These hypothesesconcern (i) the composition of the consolidationprogramme, (ii) its size and persistence, (iii) thegravity of the debt situation, (iv) the influence ofthe international macroeconomic environment and (v) thecontribution of a preceding devaluation. To testfor composition effects we use cyclically-adjusteddata. Although many conclusions of the existingempirical literature are confirmed, some do notsurvive. A popular hypothesis – that to succeed, consolidationshould rely on cutting the government wagebill – is rejected. A new empirical result is that thecontribution of a devaluation to the success of fiscalconsolidation depends on the composition of theconsolidation programme.