Migration in the enlarged European Union: Empirical evidence for labour mobility in the Baltic states

Abstract

The free movement of workers again is a hot issue with regard to the Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU). Members of the EU are extremely anxious of mass immigration flows from Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs). This paper analyses the socio-economic and demographic impacts of migration in the context of the next EU enlargement. How many people might migrate from the Eastern European transition countries to Western Europe, and what will be the socio-economic and demographic consequences of this emigration for the home countries? After providing a short overview of the theoretical literature and the empirical evidence on the socio-economic determinants of migration, the next section discusses the historical evidence of the migrant flows from the candidate countries into the EU. We draw on suggestions from the literature as well as on our empirical work. In the following parts, we evaluate the size and the structure of current and future migration to Western Europe following the opening up of the transition countries in the beginning of the 1990s. This part quantitatively evaluates the future migration pressure, based on the economic and demographic situation in the Baltic states and Western Europe. In the last section, we discuss the policy implication of our econometric analysis, and draw policy conclusions.