信息不确定条件下的外交调研 ——从突发事件和热点问题的调研说起

突发事件起因复杂,前景难测,这为外交调研带来了信息不确定的困难.从广义方面说,几乎各种类型的外交调研都是在信息不确定的条件下进行的,这就需要外交人员学习在信息不确定条件下的调研方法.本文通过分析信息推理法、归谬法和综合法,为新中国外交界部分成功的经验进行了归纳和总结,并就如何克服调研工作中可能遇到的干扰提出了一些解决办法.

Approaches to Diplomatic Research in Absence of Sufficient Information

Abrupt occurrences of incidents stemming from a complex set of causes and with an unpredictable outcome,often pose big problems for diplomatic researchers.However,in a broad sense,most diplomatic researches have been conducted under circumstances where what information available is not sufficient and uncertain,which sets a high demand on diplomats in terms of mastery of various approaches to the analyses of diplomatic information.This paper has summed up the methods of inference by deduction,reduction ad absurdum and synthesis that have been applied to diplomatic information analysis by veteran diplomats and offered some resolutions in the process of research.