过度劳动的过去、现在与未来 —— 理论模型与实证支持

在中国学术界,关于过度劳动的研究大多关注当下。本文以历史发展的视角审视人类过度劳动问题,分析过度劳动的过去、现在与未来。为此,本文建立了过度劳动形成的理论模型,在此基础上解释人类社会自工业化以来,在最初阶段过度劳动普遍比较严重,之后随着消费品产出的不断增加,资本的积累和技术的不断进步,工作时间不断减少,过度劳动趋于缓和,这一观点得到数据的支持。可以预见在不久的将来,体力劳动将大幅被取代,工作时间也将进一步减少。由此,过度的体力劳动将成为历史。未来的产业竞争将更多地表现为设计和管理人工智能人才之间的竞争,过度劳动将主要成为这一群体的问题。

Overwork in the Past, Present and Future: Theoretical Model and Empirical Evidence

In Chinese academic circle, the research on overwork focuses on the present. From the angle of historic development this paper examines overwork of human being, analyzing overwork in the past, present and future. To this end, this paper puts forward a theoretical model of overwork, based on which explains the reasons that after the industrial revolution, overwork was severe and common initially, and then with the increase in consumer goods, accumulation of capital, and the progress of technology, overwork gradually eased off, which is supported by the data. It can be anticipated that in the near future manual labor will be replaced largely, and hours of work will further decrease, causing intensive manual labor will become the history. In the future, the industrial competition will focus mostly on the talents of intelligent design and management, and overwork will be a problem mostly in this group