Multi-Year Forecasting and Municipal Budgeting

The "black hole" of budget theory still is, after 50 years, budget preparation—much effort goes in but little seems to come out. This article examines municipal forecasting as a means of reforming this first stage of the budgetary process. Drawing on evidence from a cross-sectional study, we find that forecasting is likely to be within the cognitive limits of most municipal budget directors Moreover, budgetary forecasting can be structured to reflect previous and current political concerns.