权力转移下崛起国对小国政策探因——以隋唐时期的吐谷浑与高句丽为例

在美中权力转移的时代关口,崛起国的行为具有重要的理论与实务意义。文章将权力与文化的解释共同纳入理论框架,用突厥—隋唐时期的不对称关系加以检验,探讨在权力转移背景下崛起国会对不同的小国施行何种政策,以及什么因素决定了其政策。隋唐对吐谷浑、高句丽的政策证实了基于权力的核心逻辑,两大国的权力对比决定了崛起国的攻守倾向,从而产生它对小国的政策基调。吐谷浑与高句丽这组最相似案例否证了文化亲和度的作用。以历史启示审视今日世局,在实力超越美国之前,中国将保持对美国的防御姿态与对小国的和缓政策。

Policies of the Rising Power towards Small States in Power Transition:The Cases of Tuyuhun and Goguryeo during the Turks vs.Sui-Tang Period

This article attempts to explain what policies the rising power chooses to have towards different small countries and why it adopts them.We organize the factors based on the competitive perspectives of power and culture into our framework,and then examine their effectiveness by analyzing the asymmetric interactions that happened during the power transition period between the Turkic Khanates vs.Sui-Tang China.The policies of Sui-Tang China implemented on Tuyuhun(Azha)and Koguryo confirm the material logic:the power balance between the two giants determined the rising power’s strategic tendency when facing the hegemon,which then generated its keynote of policies for treating the small states.However,the effect of cultural affinity is denied by the most-similar sub-cases.Our findings suggest that,before China overtakes the US,it will maintain a defensive strategic posture towards the US and adopt moderate policies towards lesser powers.